Hurricane Florence - Airports in North Carolina could suffer


#1

If you live under a rock (or outside of the US), then you might not have heard about Hurricane Florence. Hurricane Florence will rank as a category 4 hurricane, with winds of 150+ mph. It is currently scheduled to impact the North Carolina coast and then very slowly continue to move NWW. Experts predict that a enormous storm surge as large as 20 feet (around 6 meters) is definitely possible.
There could also be massive flooding caused by rains. The hurricane will impact the North Carolina coast as a Category 3-4, but then it’ll continue to sit stationary at the coast for nearly a day, continuing to drop rain on the coastal areas and cities more inland (like Raleigh). 24+ inches (60+ cm) of rainfall is possible in these areas.
Airports near the beach like KILM Wilmington International Airport (in Wilmington, North Carolina) could definitely suffer a tremendous impact from this hurricane since its elevation is only around 33 feet (around 10 meters). European forecasts currently predict that around 40 inches (around 1 meter) of rain will fall in the Wilmington area. They also predict that the wave height at Wilmington’s beach will be at around 14 feet high.
Additionally, North Carolina’s most major airports, for example KCLT (Charlotte Douglas International Airport, largest airport in NC, major AA hub) and KRDU (Raleigh-Durham International Airport, Delta hub), could also potentially suffer from this hurricane. Although the hurricane will likely decrease its strength by the time it reaches inland areas, rainwater flooding could still be an issue, and tornadoes spawned by the hurricane could also have a negative effect on the inland cities of NC.

Some images from the European forecast on windy.com :

Estimated total rainfall in Wilmington through the next 10 days:


(source: https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?rainAccu,2018-09-14-03,33.993,-77.948,7,m:eB8adZk)

Estimated top wind speeds in Wilmington on Thursday, September 13, 2018 at 10:00 PM EDT:


(source: https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,2018-09-14-03,33.993,-77.948,7,m:eB8adZk)


#2

I’m thinking of posting this in IFC instead/also. Do you all think this type of post would be allowed on IFC under real-world-aviation?


#3

More than likely it will be allowed. It’s a major news event


#4

I’ve just reading and it’s dipped south a bit so it’s gonna be heading towards SC now. But, a large portion of N.C. is going to be impacted. Here’s the link- https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wral.com/new-track-shows-florence-tracking-more-south-but-nc-impact-remains-serious/17836959/%3Fversion=amp


#5

(All data is sourced from the European ECMWF forecast, which is known for its good accuracy.)

The good news:
Raleigh area won’t be as heavily affected as before.
Hurricane Florence has currently degraded to a Category 2 (from Cat. 4).
The predicted total rainfall has decreased: 23.5 inches (around 60 cm) forecasted for Wilmington over the next 10 days from today

The bad news:
South Carolina and KCLT are now more at risk.
Wilmington and other places along the coast will still suffer just as much.

The hurricane’s track was updated a little while ago.
The hurricane is now predicted to reach Wilmington area as a Category 2-3, then head southwest along the South Carolina coast as a Tropical Storm or Category 1-2. It will then travel northwest, right along the Georgia and SC border, as a Tropical Depression or, more likely, a Tropical Storm. It will then head north into eastern Tennessee as a Tropical Depression.
This might seem to say that North Carolina won’t be affected once the hurricane makes it to southern SC. However, most of the winds and rains of the storm are actually all on the northern side of the hurricane. This means that Charlotte (KCLT) and northern South Carolina could withstand winds of over 45-55 mph (72-88 kmh) non-stop, 24 hours a day through all of Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday (since the hurricane is travelling so slowly). RIght now, 6-10 inches of rain are predicted for Charlotte.
Places in South Carolina such as Myrtle Beach and Charleston will suffer more due to this change in the hurricane’s path, so let’s hope the best for them.
Wilmington is still predicted to suffer; mandatory evacuations have already taken place, so hope that everyone has decided to evacuate.

Current status of Hurricane Florence:


(source: https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,32.371,-77.915,6,m:eAZad3Y)


closed #6